When you read these words, the year 2000 will have arrived. I trust that you have had a peaceful New Year’s holiday, and that your lights, telephones, computers and other appliances are working as usual.
I am writing this on November 29. Today the World Trade Organization convened in Seattle, and the rest of us returned to work from our Thanksgiving weekend. This entire year ought to have been a time of Thanksgiving for the wondrous era we live in, and for the effort and sacrifice that it took to bring this about. Too bad the sound and fury of digital Armageddon has distracted us from things that are truly significant.
Six billion people are alive today. Though too many live in societies that are materially or politically impoverished, more live in freedom and prosperity than ever before. We who enjoy this good fortune live longer and are healthier than ever. We expend very little of our resources on food, and an astonishing amount on entertainment. While the world is hardly free of conflict and danger, the first half of my statistical lifetime has been remarkably tranquil compared to what came before.
In Seattle the WTO delegates are trying to shape the future. So are the thousands of demonstrators who have flocked to Puget Sound to oppose the WTO mandate of ever-freer trade. At least the delegates and the demonstrators have their agendas and visions for the future, different though they might be. What about the rest of us? What do we want in the coming century? What should we expect?
Here are my thoughts:
The struggle for freedom continues. Four centuries ago, the idea that individual men (let alone women) had rights barely existed. It has taken this long for the concept of human rights to advance as far as it has, and the struggle goes on. In societies large and small, those who hold power still deny it to their fellow citizens, usually under the cover of maintaining “order and stability” or achieving “progress.” History has shown that these societies are not stable, and that any progress they achieve often is lost in the turmoil that accompanies change when it finally comes. I am heartened that so many countries, from Eastern Europe to South Africa to the Philippines, have found freedom in recent years with little violence. Still, there are many battles to come, from Cuba to Iran to — especially — China. Even our own society has not yet conquered all of its demons regarding those who we see as “them” rather than “us.” One of our great strengths, however, is our commitment to open debate, which eventually helps us reach consensus even when the process takes decades, as was the case for women’s suffrage, racial equality or, currently, abortion and homosexuality.
The frontiers of life expand, in time… We will soon master the human genetic code; later, we will eliminate most or all genetic disorders. For good or ill, someone will clone a human just because it can be done. In the coming century we may learn how to transfer the information stored in one human brain to another, or to a machine, which might change the way we answer the question “Who am I?” We surely will have longer life spans, and more of those years will be healthy and productive. I believe this will lead us to reconsider the concept of retirement, especially when labor shortages develop as the large Baby Boom and “Baby Boom echo” generations prepare to leave the work force.
… and in space. Like all species, we feel a biological imperative to live where we can. In our case, this will mean humans living and working in space, on the moon and on Mars, and beneath the ocean. Territorial conflict may develop as those who arrive first try to defend their turf against those who come later. Does a rich country like the United States, or a consortium of advanced countries, have the right to claim the moon if we can get there before, say, the people of Afghanistan? Is a new round of colonialism, this time extraterrestrial, in store?
Money flows faster and farther than ever. Money no longer is a tangible commodity, such as gold or a greenback redeemable for silver. Today’s money is an intangible legal claim on someone else’s resources. This is just a form of information, which is why computers and smart cards can so easily “store” and “transfer” money. As the technology of moving information advances, it becomes very difficult to hold back the flow of knowledge or money, because they are the same thing. Those who wish to control information in order to retain power will have to resort to harsher methods to avoid being circumvented. The question boils down to who owns the information: Those who create it, or those who assert the power to decide how it is used. In America, we define this debate as one of privacy or civil liberties. In China, it may be cast as one of national sovereignty or law and order. It is the same debate.
Subsistence and “self-sustaining” economies disappear. A world that has 6 billion people, on its way to a projected 10 billion by mid-century, will have no place for those who would simply work the land to support their families. Too little land, too many families. Only those economies that upgrade their labor skills through internal or outside investment will see relative living standards rise. So, in Seattle, those who took to the streets today to protest the WTO’s commitment to more open trade are fighting the wrong battle. Trade is what allows two sides to make the most of what they have. In a world in which ever more people seek an ever-higher standard of living, the efficient cooperation of trade is our best option.
